In the recent years, America's foreign relations with India seems to be on the right track. There is a widespread consensus in Indian policy-making circles that India-US relations will stay on the same path in the foreseeable future. At the moment, India is not seen as a priority in the American foreign policy. There is going to be a major change happening in India in 2014 while much of American policy-makers' energy is being expended on the handling of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2014.
Modi's personal popularity is soaring throughout India especially among the youth. If the recent state polls are any indicator of the electorate's mood, Narendra Modi will be Prime Minister of the world's largest democracy by May next year. The financial markets have already cheered BJP's victory in the state polls. Most major countries have recognized his growing clout and have tried to engage him at the Ambassadorial level.
Modi may not have aired his detailed opinions on foreign policy issues but I'm sure he has comprehensive plans of his own drastically different from the previous Nehruvian dispensations. He will further improve trade relations with all of India's neighbors especially China. In his last term as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, he led trade delegations to China & Japan and he received a grand welcome in both the countries.
Modi was denied a US visa in 2005 over his alleged role in the 2002 riots - a decision that the US has refused to reverse. If Modi occupies the chair of the Prime Minister, the world will have to deal with a more assertive New Delhi which does not hesitate to flex its muscles. There is an urgent need for the United States to engage him beyond Consul General level and trade delegations such as US India Business Council.
Modi has always branded himself as a pro-development leader and he is necessary for India to come out of the policy paralysis that the inept UPA government has created. Modi will revive India from slowing growth rates and that rightly serves America's business interests too. Instead of succumbing to self-serving interests of a few lobbies, the US should begin to engage Modi.
Today, India voted in favour of the Human Rights resolution that was adopted by the US against Sri Lanka. I'm not going to go into the details of either the resolution that was adopted today or the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. India was the only country in South Asia to vote against Sri Lanka. In my view, the resolution was itself watered down from the one that was initially drafted. India, by voting against Sri Lanka, jeopardized what I consider a very important strategic relation in the region. The resolution itself will need Sri Lankan government to be on board for it to be effective on the ground. India should have instead done the following if it was genuine about the Tamil issue. 1. India should have voted in favour of Sri Lanka in the UN and passed a resolution in Parliament saying it will not interfere in the internal matters of neighbouring countries to show solidarity and keep its regional interests intact. 2. India could have taken up the Tamil genocide issue in various other international forums outside the UN. 3. India could have also forced Sri Lankan government to speed up restoration efforts and reconciliatory actions through diplomatic exercises. What was the need for India to vote in favour of such a diluted resolution? India has in the process shown that its national interests can be subverted by regional politics and it also does not care for the Sri Lankan Tamils. By voting against Sri Lanka without proper consultation, India has only exposed to the world how shabbily it conducts its foreign affairs. It also exposed the fault lines in our coalition politics. At least from now on, I hope India treats its national interests foremost and not succumb to regional political players when it comes to our foreign policy. Photo Courtesy: CNN IBN
Modi's speech at the India Today Conclave was a historic moment, the Delhi establishment and countless people across the nation watched him talk on whether the NaMo mantra will work for India. Last night's speech is unarguably his best address in 2013. He wasn't overtly political though he took a couple of very subtle potshots at his political opponents. He spoke extempore and presented his vision for India- something very different from our current political discourse.
Following are the key takeaways from his address.
1. NaMo mantra is not about a new revolution. He focusses on bringing change and progress using the very same system that has pulled the country down for so long.
2. He talks about Jan Andolan in development. There is a need to change the perception in the minds of the people about development. Development is a combined effort and government alone cannot bring about development.
3. Use our innate strengths and ancient wisdom to achieve success in this fast changing world.
4. MNREGA should have been a development guarantee scheme instead of employment guarantee scheme. The whole approach towards governance should shift to empowerment-based from the current entitlement-based approach.
5. Democracy is not just about voting someone into power. A true democracy is one where the people and the government work hand-in-hand to build the nation.
6. He talks about changing the mindset of bureaucracy. His message to bureaucrats- Do not serve the government in power instead serve the people.
7. He says 'country doesn't need acts, it needs action'. A mere implementation of acts and legislation that is already in place.
8. He talks about bringing in new technologies into administration to bring in transparency and reduce corruption. He gives the example of computerisation of Gujarat's PDS system. He also mentions that Gujarat's grievance redressal system 'Swagat' allows him to study the problems that exist in the delivery of government services. The root cause of corruption is that the decision making person has the power to discriminate. If the state is policy-driven and every policy is defined in black and white, corruption will come down by itself.
9. Modi says 'Institutionalize ideas, leader-centric policies wont last long'.
10. He talks about demographic dividend being one of our biggest strengths today. Democracy is also one of our natural strengths that we can use to compete with China on the world stage.
11. Integrated development is possible only when the large industries source their raw materials locally and create more employment in the process.
12. He touches upon various topics like manufacturing fertilizers from urban solid waste & encouraging farmers to use it to reduce the fertilizer subsidy bill and allowing private players to operate rail lines to drive home the point that only novel ideas can bring change and progress. He also talks about some innovative schemes that his government has implemented like Shala Praveshotsav and Kanya Kelavani Abhiyan.
13. He expresses his personal belief in renewable energy. Gujarat is one of the first governments in the world to have a climate change department and the first in India to have a solar policy of its own. Innovative schemes like solar panels on top of canals will help solve the land acquisition problem, stop evaporation of water from the canal and produce clean energy.
14. The age of military power is over. Knowledge is the 21st century power. Indian youth with all their zeal for knowledge will go around the world and assert themselves.
15. India should build on its capabilities to become the largest supplier of arms in the world, not the largest buyer.
16. When asked about his party's opposition to FDI in multi-brand retail he says 'Indian manufacturing has to be strengthened and a level playing field should be created before FDI is brought in.'
17. His definition of secularism- Protect every citizen and appease no one.
18. When asked about the sorry state of PSUs in India he says 'Government has no business to be in business.'
I think he is the only politician in the world to keep such a large audience glued with rapt attention even while he spoke about things like urban solid waste management. It just amazed me how the Delhi establishment queued up to listen to this man from Gujarat speak in Hindi. In short, the NaMo mantra is about changing the approach towards governance, bringing a 'YES WE CAN' attitude. He carried a message of hope.
NaMo mantra is not just a mantra of development and good governance, it is a mantra of hope and an alternate vision for India, a mantra to claim back our rightful place in the world, finally a mantra to help us reach our destiny.
A message to all Modi-baiters: Sometimes in life, you need to give up, grow up and move on!
Urban local body polls are representative of only around 30% of the state's electorate and do not in anyway reveal the trend for the upcoming assembly elections. ULB polls are fought mostly on local factors. But it clearly indicates the presence of an anti-incumbency wave against the ruling BJP government. The 5 years of BJP rule in the state has been a tale of extreme cases of nepotism, casteism and corruption. Today, an average BJP karyakarta is not in a position to go out and campaign for their leaders. I have personally spoken to 2 RSS leaders who have decided to stay neutral in the upcoming assembly polls. That said, I must also point out that there is no Congress-wave as such in the state. At best it will be a mixed verdict. But the Congress is clearly in a better position than it was in 2008. Few BJP supporters have suggested that the party can only prosper if Yeddyurappa is brought back to the party fold. Yeddyurappa has clearly moved on and has made scathing remarks against RSS and the BJP central leadership in the last few months. It will backfire if the party succumbs to Yeddyurappa sympathizers and tries to woo him. One of the party leaders told me that Yeddyurappa's greatest achievement was that he made even the RSS leaders aware of their castes. BJP clearly hasn't lost everything in the state and might retain its present tally in the parliamentary elections of 2014 if it implements the following measures. 1. Strict action against Yeddyurappa sympathizers within the party even if it means bringing down the government. 2. Give Jagadish Shettar a free hand in the assembly campaign. 3. Anant Kumar and Eshwarappa should not be allowed to make important decisions within the party in the run-up to the assembly elections. 4. Few of the state level RSS leaders who have been making important decisions at the government-level should be kept away. 5. Do not welcome ex-legislators from other parties. 6. Field new faces in the assembly elections and back them fully to build the party from the grassroots. 7. BJP leadership should tender unconditional apology to the people of Karnataka for the misgovernance and charges of corruption. 8. Do not bring in Modi to campaign for the assembly elections because it is clearly a lost cause for the BJP in the state. That might do harm to his national image. 9. Do not resort to extreme caste politics and keep the Hindutva agenda alive. 10. RSS leadership in the state needs a complete overhaul too. 11. Do not make any covert deals with Reddy brothers. 12. BJP should make an honest attempt to re-build the party from the grassroots, acknowledge the hard work of loyal BJP workers and stay far away from unscrupulous elements. The above measures will help the party retain quality leadership. It will also enthuse party workers for the 2014 campaign. If the Congress forms the next government in the state it will be clearly ADVANTAGE BJP in 2014 since the anti-incumbency wave would have already set in after one year of governance since the state Congress is a divided house with at least 6 CM aspirants.
'One has to lose many battles to win a war' should be the motto of the state BJP.
Just a few years back, common man never had any enthusiasm in the union government's annual budget sessions. Fortunately the situation has changed today largely due to the penetration of media and massive urbanisation that led to the rise of the new middle class. A common man today closely monitors the annual budget session mainly to find out how the budget affects his/her spending power. It is a clear sign of a maturing democracy, a clear signal that more and more people are becoming politically aware and responding to it. I am attaching the Budget video for those of you who have not watched it.
I must say Budget-2013 was a balanced budget despite my obvious political inclinations. Though many of Mr. Chidambaram's numbers look unreal it can be called a balanced budget considering the profligacy and directionless budgets we have witnessed during the last 9 years of UPA rule. Chidambaram simply had no elbow room to resort to profligacy because the global investors and credit-rating agencies were watching him closely.
Chidambaram's Google+ Hangout four days after the budget session is a welcome development. It only reflects the rise of the aspirational middle class and the importance of social media in political discourse. It provided a platform for people from different sections of society to talk to Chidambaram directly about the budget. This is clearly a good sign considering the otherwise insensitive UPA government. The government should use such platforms to interact with people directly.
I still feel this UPA government and especially Chidambaram since he is the Finance Minister lack new ideas to bring India back to its true potential. As a result, countrymen have to turn to Narendra Modi for new ideas and inspiration. Only the lion from Gujarat can let loose the animal spirits of our economy.
Note: Watch both the Budget-2013 video and Google+ Hangout video attached with this blog.
Just 4 years back when the BJP formed it's first government in South India, BJP central leaders had plans of projecting the state on the lines of Gujarat. But what the state has seen since then is history- extreme cases of nepotism, casteism and corruption. None of the 3 CMs the state has seen since the BJP came to power delivered on their promises. The BJP government became a talking-point of corruption and a flag-bearer of misgovernance. The people of the state had to bend their heads in shame in front of the nation's eyes.
The BJP which never tasted success in South India grew from strength-to-strength in Karnataka for the following 4 reasons.
1. Death of Ramakrishna Hegde- Ramakrishna Hegde had an alliance with the BJP at the national level when he passed away. He was very popular especially among the Lingayats. The BJP filled the leadership vacuum after his passing away by taking in most of his supporters and built the party organisation very well using RSS' organisational capabilities. The popularity of Vajpayee led NDA also helped the party's standing in the state.
2. Kumarswamy's failure to transfer power to BSY- This was seen by many especially by the Lingayats as a plot against them and they sided with the BJP as the state hadn't seen a Lingayat CM since JH Patel.
3. Bellary brothers- The Reddy brothers invested heavily in the 2008 elections and helped form the BJP government to protect their business interests.
4. Good strategy- Arun Jaitley did a fantastic job by coupling RSS' organisational capabilities, sympathy factor, caste equations and Bellary mining money.
The combination of all the above factors delivered a victory for the BJP.
The BJP is solely responsible for the mess the state is currently in. The BJP has to do a face-saving act by immediately dissolving the assembly and seek early elections. It cannot even dream of coming to power on it's own in the next 5 years in the state. The central leadership should instead ask the state leadership to sit in the opposition and work over-time for the 2014 parliamentary elections to contribute maximum number of MPs to make Narendra Modi the PM.
Personally, I am a huge fan of RSS, Narendra Modi and Advani but I'm disgusted at the state of affairs in the Karnataka BJP which is full of mediocrity. Congress in the state suffers from the same problem since it's central leadership does not encourage strong leaders at the state level. The only choice for the people now is HD Kumarswamy. Once led by mighty politicians such as S Nijalingappa, Devraj Urs, Ramakrishna Hegde who had earned a name for themselves even outside the state, we're now reduced to choosing the best among the worst. Please cast your vote consciously in the next assembly elections in the state and let us collectively push mediocrity out of Karnataka's political system.
I strongly recommend that one should read about Tavleen Singh before reading her book. In brief, Tavleen Singh is a veteran political columnist and one of the first female journalists to have covered the post-Indira era in detail. She had great access to the inner circles of political powerhouses in Delhi during the Rajiv Gandhi's era. One must also understand that very few female journalists existed during her time who had such privilege and access to Lutyens' evening parties.
The book claims to give a detailed inside account of what happens inside the power circles of Delhi. But sadly most of her claims cannot be verified. Sometimes she just comes across as a jealous old aunt who starts criticizing Sonia only after she gets thrown out of Rajiv's inner circle. As one reads the book, Tavleen's animosity for Rajiv-Sonia becomes very visible and at times comes across as pretty undignified. For example she says: By Rajiv's second year in power, stories about Sonia's shopping sprees began to circulate in Delhi's drawing rooms.. Then, from diplomatic sources in distant Moscow, where the prime minister and his wife made their first foreign visit, came the story of Sonia buying an expensive sable coat... According to the story I heard Sonia's tastes in fur coats was so refined that she was not satisfied with Soviet tailoring and had the coat sent to Rome to be redesigned by the Italian fashion house, Fendi...
She even goes further and ends her book by describing the scene at Teen Murti House where people had gathered to pay their last respects for Rajiv Gandhi: Sonia's dark brown hair was tied back and covered with her cotton sari and her face was carefully made up. Even the lower eyelashes she painted on to make her eyes look bigger were in place..
From tidbits of information I gleaned from these friends...when Sonia refused to become Congress President on the night Rajiv died, it was probably because she knew that if she took the job, she would be quickly exposed..
I expected a lot more from a veteran journalist like Tavleen Singh. She takes personal digs at Rajiv, Sonia, MJ Akbar and pretty much everyone she mentions in the book and also tries to ascertain her superiority over other journalists. Though I dont doubt her credibility, she just fails to provide any verifiable facts and just restricts her book to rumours one hears in Delhi's elite parties. But I must say her narrative about the Bhindranwale days, Sikh-riots and the Janata experiments are quite detailed and make a good read. In short, you should read this book if you are looking for a Bollywood-style narrative of India's contemporary history and India's most powerful political family.
Post-Ram Janmabhoomi Movement, no parliamentary election has been fought under any strong political wave. This is because of the rise in the number of regional parties under various charismatic leaders. Ironically, ‘national’ parties no longer have a presence throughout the nation and have been forced to make suitable alliances in different states.
The dominance of the Indian National Congress was broken for the first time in the general elections of 1977 and the Janata party came to power. There was a very strong anti-Indira wave in the country due to the excesses of the emergency period. People throughout the country were affected and they were determined to teach Mrs. Gandhi and her party a lesson.
Similarly, in 1984 Rajiv Gandhi won a huge mandate of 414 seats in a 533-seat parliament. Along with the sympathy wave that swept across the nation after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, the nation as a whole was tired of the old Congress and the failed Janata experiment; the nation saw in Rajiv Gandhi a young, sophisticated leader who they thought will bring real prosperity to the nation.
The period between 1989 and 1991 was a very turbulent one in Indian politics. The rise of Hindu nationalistic politics and the Bofors scandal changed India’s political landscape forever. The Congress was completely wiped out from some of the states in Northern India. Congress has never been able to form a government in Delhi with a clear majority since 1984. Two poles were created in the national politics, one headed by the BJP and the other by the Congress.
In 2014 when the next parliamentary elections are due, Congress would have been in power for almost 10 years. The UPA government headed by Congress has failed on various fronts and there is a strong anti-incumbency wave in the country. The UPA under Manmohan Singh has literally taken the country back to the socialist era. Though the Congress faces many challenges today, its most difficult challenge comes from a man heading a state in the western part of India- NARENDRA MODI.
Narendra Modi is facing the toughest election of his life and all the exit polls say he’ll come out victorious with a huge mandate. That should easily catapult him into national politics. The man himself is in many ways bigger than his own party. He has cleverly combined development with soft Hindutva as an election issue and used it successfully against the Congress. He enjoys tremendous popularity throughout the nation. Many elected legislators from different parties privately say even their wives and children would vote for Modi if he is made the PM candidate in 2014. One can clearly see a huge Modi wave in the country from Delhi to Kanyakumari. The entire nation eagerly waits for him to take the centre stage in Delhi. In many ways 2014 elections will be a make or break one for India. Be sure to be on the right side because there is no middle ground when it comes to debate on Modi.
“Desh ka Pradhan Mantri kaisa ho, Narendra Modi jaisa ho”
Online media tools, such as Facebook and Twitter have been in news all over the world for their ability to bring social change and mobilize people. They played a major role during the protests in the Middle East and North Africa. They have succeeded in providing a platform for ordinary men, women, and even children to stand up and demand for their rights and also air their discontent with the ruling regime. Social media with its mass reach has all the ingredients to become a perfect tool to organize a mass movement.
In India, the role of internet media in bringing political change has been more subtle. Narendra Modi is the only major politician to have used these tools to connect directly with common people, thus diluting the role of traditional media who have made some very uncharitable comments about him in the past. He gave a huge blow to the Delhi-based traditional English language media by interacting with lakhs and lakhs of his admirers on Google+ Hangout on August 31. It was a historic event because Modi was present there in person to interact with the common people and around 15 lakh people from 116 countries waited patiently; the event was delayed by an hour as Google’s servers could not handle the unprecedented traffic.
A Facebook application, called ‘Be Gujarat’s Brand Ambassador’, enables people to share stories and ideas on Gujarat’s development particularly in six areas- tourism, agriculture, tribal development, specialized education, power and women empowerment. The added incentive is four people will be selected to share their perspectives and ideas with Modi in person. Modi is the first Chief Minister to realize the global reach that these social media tools enjoy and thus use them for governance and also showcase Gujarat to a global audience.
Today, the youth of India is increasingly getting disenchanted with the sad state of affairs at the centre and Congress party’s increasing disconnect with the common people. Today's youth don’t blindly follow a political ideology; they are all well-read due to the sheer magnitude of free information available on the World Wide Web and debate on various issues. The left-leaning liberals that dominate the English media in India today brand them as ‘Internet Hindus’. These people have found a new platform in the form of social media to air their views. Youth activism on the internet is a movement; the effect of which will only be felt a couple of years from now. This is precisely the reason why Congress is ready to go the extra mile to impose restrictions on the internet media. Just the demography of the so called Internet Hindus reveals it all. According to an online survey:
88.9% identified themselves as ‘Internet Hindus’, indicating they attach no shame to the term.
Of these, 4% are aged 20 years and below, 55% are aged 30 and below, 31% are 40 and below and only 10% are aged above 40. So, 90% of them are young Indians.
43% are graduates from top-notch engineering and medical colleges, 46% are post-graduates (a large number with an MBA degree), 11% have a PhD and 17.3% are studying. They represent the educated India.
Of the 82.7% who are employed, 3.1% earn up to Rs 2 lakh a year, 18.4% earn up to Rs 6 lakh a year, 34.7% earn up to Rs 12 lakh a year and 26.5% earn more than Rs 24 lakh a year.
The survey data clearly indicates that these Internet Hindus represent well-educated, middle class section of India. These new age Hindus are very different from the Trishul wielding karsevaks of the Ayodhya era. But just like any other mass movement in history, the Internet Hindu movement also has a few abusive elements but most are open to new ideas and debate. When the rest of India slowly starts getting educated, increase their standard of living and start interacting with their peers on social media platforms and become politically aware, they will probably lean towards Modi and his brand of politics. By taking views of these Internet Hindus on-board the BJP can hope to become a genuine right-wing party with a firm ideology, the kind the country requires the most today.
‘Let the tribe of Internet Hindus grow and let us create a nation of well informed voters’ COURTESY: NITI CENTRAL
‘A
man’s worth is known in death’. More than 20 lakh people walked with Balasaheb
in Mumbai in his last journey, the same people who stood with him for the last
4 decades. Though he started his party as the last leg of the Maharashtra
Samyukta Movement, he fought for many issues in his long innings in politics.
He took tough stands throughout his career and fought his way up. With just a
wave of his finger he could bring the entire state to a halt. Balasaheb
Thackeray was a tall man in Maharashtra politics. His flair for art was
possibly one of the most important factors that shaped his personality and
ultimately the character of his party. Many say Balasaheb was communal and arrogant, but the
qualities he had makes him look very different from most of his peers. 1. His charismatic personality that he used to
build a larger than life image for himself. Though he was not very successful
in electoral politics, he was respected by the Delhi leaders and the leaders of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. 2.
He was a leader who had the guts to speak his heart. He was one of the last among
the lot to take responsibility for what they speak. He even told once in an
interview that his party did not have any specific ideology as such; they just take
up issues as they unfold. He was that candid. He
was one of the last mass leaders our country was left with. His death marks the end of an era in
Maharashtra politics. There is not one person left in Maharashtra politics
today who can invoke such huge respect on a massive scale. He was the
‘GODFATHER’ of the entire state. After all this dust settles down, Shiv Sena
will have to answer the question of legacy sooner or later. People were still
attracted to the Shiv Sena only because of Balasaheb Thackeray. Most of the
senior leaders from Balasaheb’s older days have already drifted away from the
party. It is going to be a tough ride for Uddhav after his father’s departure.
Though Balasaheb appealed to people to support Uddhav and Aditya during his
recent Dussehra address, it still remains to be seen whether people will
strengthen Uddhav’s hand with the same devotion they had towards Balasaheb.
Raj
Thackeray on the other hand was groomed by Balasaheb himself. As a child, he
accompanied Balasaheb on his long tours and listened to his long fiery speeches
every day. He is a fantastic organizer and has met success with his Maharashtra
Navnirman Sena. Though he appears to have inherited Balasaheb’s charm, Raj has
gone out of his comfort zone to appeal to a variety of new class of voters and
created a huge fan following of his own. Even in today’s funeral rally he was
just quietly walking behind the truck that carried Balasaheb’s body and did not
look like a man who was out to claim Balasaheb’s legacy. Shiv Sena needs
someone like that today to attract new age voters especially since Balasaheb is no more. The Shiv Sena,
MNS and BJP should come together to have a grand electoral alliance to defeat
the ruling alliance. Is it time for Raj Thackeray to step up to the occasion to
become ‘Rajsaheb Thackeray’?
Divided we stand,
divided we fall would explain the BJP’s stand in Karnataka
perfectly. When BJP formed its first government in South India in 2008, central
BJP leaders thought the Karnataka win will help the party make inroads into
other southern states. They even thought of showcasing Karnataka as a model
state on the lines of Gujarat. Just 4 years into power, state BJP leaders have proved everyone wrong. If the BJP has to save its national image it should expel Yeddyurappa and face the consequences.
Yeddyurappa has been
credited with BJP’s step by step electoral success in Karnataka starting in
2004 by most political pundits. But there were more important factors than Yeddyurappa's popularity in Lingayat constituency which
actually helped the BJP rise. Ramakrishna Hegde was an extremely
popular leader in Northern Karnataka. His passing away in 2004 created a
leadership vacuum in the Lingayat-dominated North Karnataka. Since he shared an
electoral alliance with the BJP when he died, most of his followers switched
sides to the BJP and helped it gain popularity among the Lingayat voters. This was single most important factor in BJP's rise also contributed by the opposition's lethargy.
Ever since Yeddyurappa
stormed into power, first as Deputy-CM and later as CM, he generously
cultivated and entertained Lingayat swamis. He eventually started projecting
himself as the tallest leader of his caste. But his popularity is yet to be
tested electorally.
Yeddyurappa has
announced his plans to quit the BJP and float his own regional outfit by
December. He has been saying that the developments he undertook as CM will play
to his advantage. Really? He led one of the most corrupt governments in the
history of the state. Some say his greatest achievement is: he made even the
RSS top brass in the state aware of their castes. The BJP can be credited with
successfully destroying the political culture in the state.
The state assembly
elections in 2013 will be followed with great interest. Even though the BJP has played its caste arithmetic correct so far,
some of its leaders from prominent castes inspire no confidence among their own
castes. Moreover, the BJP is a divided house today and should be more than
happy if it can win 60+ seats. The Congress is not in a good shape either.
There’s a leadership vacuum very evident in the state Congress which has been
in a bad shape since SM Krishna moved to the national stage. Yeddyurappa’s
outfit once he floats it and Bellary-Reddy sponsored BSR Congress will have a
very limited role to play in the next assembly elections.
Thanks to Yeddyurappa’s
bad governance, Kumarswamy and Deve Gowda look like a credible choice for the
people of Karnataka today. JD(S) has grown from strength to strength since the
last assembly elections. It hopes to increase its seat tally, win 60+ seats and
play kingmaker again. It looks like there’s going to be a lot of political
turbulence in the days to come. People can forget governance and just sit back & watch the political developments unfurl.
The Indian National Congress is one of the oldest political parties in the world. It has ruled India for most of the post-independence era. The members of the Nehru-Gandhi family have ruled the country for most of this period either directly or indirectly. The Congress party stands in a very difficult situation today. Though the party has gone through turbulent times in the past, the present situation is different and difficult because today it is falling down on its own weight and sheer arrogance. There are many things wrong in the fundamental structure and attitude of the Congress and it is very difficult to fix without making significant changes both in the government and in the party including the state units. Each time the Congress split in the past, good men have deserted the Congress and today the party is left with only sycophants.
After coming to power with a huge mandate in 2009, the arrogant Congress resorted to a number of blunders. First came the corruption scandals. Then the poor handling of the Anna Hazare and the Ramdev movements. It neglected and insulted its allies and started to make unilateral decisions. As a result of this, today, after close to 8 years into power the UPA government is looking fragile with allies looking at their own futures. Today with Mamata's exit from the government, the countdown to the next parliamentary elections has begun.
Next parliamentary elections, 2014 or earlier is going to be very difficult for the Congress. In 2009, the party went to elections having Manmohan at the front after his nuclear deal success. After the last Lok Sabha elections, the political landscape of the country has undergone a huge change. Today, the PM has no credibility left after a series corruption scandals under his watch and his spineless attitude towards implementing long-delayed reforms. Many of its allies are at the peak of their popularity in their states and are vouching for mid-term polls with the dream of reviving the third front. Each time the government gives into one of its ally's demands it leaves the Congress bruised. The exit polls have predicted a gloomy picture for the Congress. Except probably Karnataka, they are not going to make any progress in any of the large states.
In the past everytime the Congress went through a turbulent phase, the Nehru-Gandhi family has stepped into provide leadership and stability. Today the first family is the source of Congress' problems. The biggest problem that is haunting the Congress is the young prince's reluctance to enter active politics. He has revived the youth Congress for close to 8 years now and the result is there for everyone to see. Chances of projecting Rahul as PM candidate in the next elections is close to zero. With no experience and no political achievement to his credit, at 42, he comes across a man who seems to have slipped deep into mid-life crisis. He no longer connects with India's youth. Priyanka, though charismatic, has a huge weakness in the form of Robert Vadra. Once she enters electoral politics, the public scrutiny wont spare her husband. And Sonia cant be expected to lead the party for long since there is a big question mark over her health. She has undergone many health check-ups in the past couple of months and no one knows the exact status of her health.
The Congress, through the years, has successfully destroyed the creative leadership, once evident in the Congress at both the centre and at the state level. The result is, today one cant find leaders of the stature of Advani, Modi, Jaitley, Yashwant Sinha or Jaswant Singh in the Congress. The BJP has powerful regional leaders at the states and charismatic leaders at the centre. This makes it very difficult for the Congress to weave an effective strategy for the next elections. If Modi enters the national arena, and if Rahul is pitted against him, Modi will crush Rahul into insignificance.
It is time for the Congress to dissolve the assembly, sit in the opposition, re-think its strategy, and prepare for the 2019 general elections.
On Friday, the Government headed by Manmohan Singh suddenly announced big-ticket economic reforms including allowing FDI in multi brand retail and aviation and a few other sectors and a 15000 crore divestment target. On Thursday came a decision to hike diesel prices and capping subsidies on LPG. It seems like the Government has gone all-in to make up for years of inactivity and policy paralysis.
Now, the timing of all these big announcements is very important. The international media from 'The Economist' to the 'Time magazine' had criticised the PM for all the inaction and failure to implement reforms. The international investing community and the Corporate India had been very vocal against the Singh led Government. More than anything, these big announcements help improve the short term market sentiments. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who was called an 'Underachiever' by the Time magazine suddenly looks like a hero. The TV channels who had slowly started to distance themselves from the Congress after a series of corruption scandals under his watch are back again praising the Government's enthusiasm in implementing long-delayed reforms. Is this PM Singh's N-Deal moment?
There may be many reasons both political and corporate lobby behind Singh's new-found enthusiasm and guts. But whatever the reasons are, these reforms were very much necessary for the nation at the moment. Any big economic reform has side effects but in the long run it helps to bring in efficiency and prosperity to the country's citizens both urban and rural.
The developments in the last two days on the economic reform front clearly shows the efficiency of the well oiled crisis management system of the Congress party. It has successfully shifted the national debate from the 'Coalgate' to the reforms. The BJP appears to be the biggest loser from this swift political move by the Congress because FDI in multi-brand retail was Jaswant Singh's 'baby'. The BJP has positioned itself on the wrong side of its urban consumer vote-bank by opposing FDI. Even though the SP and the TMC have opposed FDI in retail their support base mainly consists of rural voters, but the urban voters have traditionally been with the BJP. The Congress has once again exposed BJP's failure in formulating clear economic and media strategy. The BJP should have welcomed the Government's announcements and should have convinced people that the UPA-2 is just implementing the policies that were actually born during the NDA regime.
Overnight the BJP finds itself aligned on the side of backward-looking Left parties. The BJP should learn from the policies of the right wing parties across the globe. It should shed its anti-development image and hug free-market capitalism. Only the free markets can bring in prosperity in its true sense. A Government cannot shield its people forever from the adverse effects of the global economy. And farmers & traders have to get out there compete with the world's best and in turn make the entire system efficient.
At the end all this means the Prime Minister has just survived to fight another day.
CNN-IBN's recent show 'The Greatest Indian after Gandhi' shed some light on the forgotten heroes of this country. While watching the show, I was discussing the anti-emergency politics with a friend. I was shocked that she was completely unaware of the heroes of the emergency era politics.
After the Bangladesh triumph in 1971, Indira Gandhi hailed as 'Goddess Durga', storms into power with a massive mandate. After this huge victory, she becomes increasingly autocratic, dismantling the old Nehruvian Congress party structure and filling the party at all levels and ministries with sycophants who are personally loyal to her. The Congress party to this day is struggling to come out of this problem. Ironically, her very landslide victory in 1972 sets the clock ticking for her downfall and the rise of the Janata movement.
Raj Narain, who had been defeated by Indira in the parliamentary elections, lodged cases of election fraud against Gandhi in the Allahabad High Court. On 12 June 1975, the High Court found the PM Indira guilty of misuse of the government machinery for electoral purposes, declared her election null and also banned her from contesting any election for 6 years.
Midnight of July 25-26, 1975, the then President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, a 'rubber-stamp' appointee signed a proclamation of internal emergency merely based on a letter from his boss PM Indira in which she says there is an imminent danger to India's security by inernal factors. What followed were 21 months of the darkest period in independent India. With fundamental rights suspended, press censorship imposed, and opposition leaders in jail, Indira ruled the country like a dictator.
Jayaprakash Narayan emerges out of retirement as the staunch critic of autocracy and with the slogan 'Dilli ki rani dekho janta kiske saath hai' calls for 'Total Revolution'. George Fernandes leads a national railway strike which the government crushes through 20000 arrests. The government issues order to arrest the opposition leaders all over the country.
In 1977, four main opposition parties and numerous other cultural and political organisations come together to form the 'Janata Party' under the over reaching appeal of the anti-emergency crusader Loknayak Jayaprakash Narayan. Morarji Desai becomes the first party president, Ramakrishna Hegde the party general secretary and LK Advani the party spokesperson. Even though Indira travelled the length and breadth of the nation, the newly formed Janata Party won a sweeping victory and was able to form the first non-Congress government at the centre.
Janata Party and its allies had swept North India, almost 330 seats out of 542. Indira and her son Sanjay both suffered humiliating defeats in their constituencies. One could finally travel from Calcutta to Amritsar without traversing an inch of Congress-ruled territory.
India and the world had welcomed the outcome of the 1977 election as a "revolution by the ballot-box". Within 34 months of it coming to power, the Janata government fell under its own weight due to the clashing ambitions of its leaders mainly Morarji Desai, Jagjivan Ram and Charan Singh. Though Janata Party was in power for just 2 and odd years, it had far-reaching consequences. It uprooted the Congress' supremacy in several states and forever diminishing the hold of Congress party over the Indian polity. The Janata movement also brought thousands of young men and women into politics and many of whom go on to become PMs, CMs and regional satraps changing the Indian political landscape forever further democraticising India. But it is an irony and also shocking that many of them who were trained in JP's stables and those who climbed the political ladder through the Janata movement are now either Congress' direct allies or externally supporting the utterly corrupt and incompetent Congress led UPA-2. These leaders by their actions actually despise the very ideas JP once stood for. I only wish these leaders stand together again and call for a second 'Total Revolution' in 2014.
For the last two days the media has made a great deal of news out of the Narendra Modi-Nitish Kumar rivalry. In Nitish Kumar's interview to The Economic Times, he puts forward a couple of qualities that he thinks that the Indian Prime Minister should have. This comes in the backdrop of Modi's projection in the Mumbai National Executive of the BJP and Modi's comment that caste politics is the reason for Bihar's backwardness. A closer look at the interview actually suggests that Nitish constructed these specifications to exclude only Modi. It is really sad that a seasoned and respected politician like Nitish Kumar has sparked off a completely useless debate on secularism.
Nitish thinks that the muslim voters in Bihar will abandon him if he supports the BJP led by Narendra Modi. But Nitish's own secular credentials in the past are highly questionable. The Godhra train incident happened under Nitish's tenure as the Railway Minister. He did not do a thing then- not even investigate it. This suggests that if his ministership is on the line he is ready to put up and shut up.
It is infact good for the NDA that Nitish Kumar has raised the issue well in advance. Modi gets sufficient time to respond to the questions. And Modi being Modi will definitely try to change his image after the Gujarat elections this year and be more acceptable to leaders outside the BJP.
In a hypothetical situation even if the JD(U) leaves the NDA before the 2014 general elections, Nitish Kumar has no place to go. He shares an uneasy relationship with the congress in Bihar and his rivals Lalu Prasad and Ramvilas Paswan are part of the UPA at the centre. He will have to join the NDA after the elections if they are in a position to form the government.
Modi has a well laid out plan for his smooth entry into the national arena. He has roped in reliable allies like Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal and Jayalalitha's AIADMK. It is possible that he has already factored in the possibility of the absence of JD(U) in case he is declared as the NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate. The BJD and the AIADMK would more than make up for JD(U)'s numbers. He has also been keen on the BJP's progress in Gujarat.
The BJP should not allow Nitish Kumar to dictate terms to the NDA and show him his place since it is the JD(U) which needs the NDA. Shiv Sena, the Akali Dal and even Mohan Bhagwat have come out in support of Modi. The BJP leaders should follow suit, support Modi's cause and show the JD(U) that they can survive without them since Modi is the only leader with them capable of leading the alliance to victory in 2014.
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) has warned in a report titled 'Will India Be the First BRIC Fallen Angel?' that India could lose its investment grade credit rating and could become the first BRIC angel to see a downgrade. The agency also said: “Slowing GDP growth and political roadblocks to economic policymaking could put India at risk of losing its investment-grade rating.” It traces the roots of this failure to the dysfunctional relationship between Manmohan Singh and left leaning policies that Sonia Gandhi endorses.
Yet the government's response to the report has been very disappointing. Pranab Mukherjee rejected the report and most of the congressmen ridiculed the report for its failure to understand Indian politics. Another shocker is India's Index for Industrial Production (IIP), for April just grew by 0.1 percent.
It also appears as though the government has outsourced all of the macroeconomic policies to the Reserve Bank of India which can only respond by either cutting or hiking the interest rates. Today's Economic Times says the government is planning to impose additional tax of Rs 1,70,000 on small diesel cars and Rs 2,50,000 on sedans and SUVs. This will disrupt the demand and destroy the Indian auto market-one of the biggest in the world. More sane approach would have been to hike the diesel prices and decrease the petrol prices by a small amount to maintain balance and prevent excessive dieselisation of the economy all the while keeping the interest rates in check to prevent run-away inflation. This economic mismanagement will have long term effects and leave us very vulnerable to the Euro Zone crisis which is yet to hit the world.
Policy paralysis and economic mismanagement arising from the dysfunctional relationship between the all powerful Sonia Gandhi-who holds no responsibility and the unelected Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is today dragging India-once a miracle economy to junk status. Now it seems like Narendra Modi is the only hope for the Indian economy. He is the only leader in the country today who has risen above scoring petty political points and talking about development and reforms. The wonderful interview he gave recently to the Economic Times (read the full interview here http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-06-07/news/32101241_1_narendra-modi-prime-minister-red-carpet ) reaffirms our faith in his leadership. This tortured country surely deserves him and he is our only hope.
The BJP's recently concluded national executive meeting in Mumbai will be remembered for marking a decisive shift in power within the BJP. One of the reasons for the main opposition party's inability to make political gains from the UPA government's series of corruption scandals and mismanagement of the economy is the power vacuum, apparent for eight years now, after the exit of AB Vajpayee and failure of LK Advani to fill the gap.
As we could see for the first time in eight years, the party's Gen Next, represented by Arun Jaitley, Narendra Modi and Nitin Gadkari have stepped up to take control of the party. This means the party's central leadership which is full of urban elites has finally acknowledged the merits of having a mass leader like Modi at the front in the run-up to the next big general elections in 2014.
The Modi-Gadkari alliance has already set off waves of realignment within the party. In the coming months, CMs of BJP ruled states and other central leaders will have to take a call and start making peace with Modi or stay neutral or openly oppose him. 2013 might see leadership changes at the state level too because of the newly emerged power equation at the centre. The rise of Modi does not mean LK Advani is irrelevant to the future of the party. He is still the tallest leader the party has and may play a very crucial role in finding allies in the post-election scenario.
Modi is the development icon of the party and displays an aggressive style. As a intensely polarising figure at the national level, he might have many drawbacks. But clearly, Modi is the best bet the BJP and in fact the country has today.
For a country that grew at 3-4 percent GDP famously called 'Hindu growth rate', 8-9 percent growth of some recent years made for a giddy experience. While the economy was on an uptrend, largely on the strength of 'easy money' in the global economy and the delayed effect of the reforms of the 1990s and the early 2000s, policymakers began talking of India achieving double-digit growth rates and overtaking China by 2020.
That dream was never realised and may never ever be realised unless our policymakers push some hard reforms. Policy paralysis at home and turmoil in the euro zone has caused our growth rate to fall to 6-7%. Yet, our policymakers like Montek Singh continue to delude themselves with claims that India can continue to grow at 8-10 percent for 20 years.
But the “golden age” high growth rate isn’t coming back. Between 2003 and 2008, the world was full of 'easy money' owing to the US Federal Reserve’s low interest rate. That period of high liquidity lifted up economies evrywhere in the world, specifically Asia and particularly India due to the shift of global manufacturing jobs to China and service sector jobs to India. And when the 2008 financial crisis struck, and global liquidity dried up, Indian government stepped in with large scale welfare policies which included petroleum, urea subsidies, tax exemption to big corporates and low interest rates to keep the growth rate high.
But by then, policymakers had gotten used to years of high growth without any effort on their part to take forward the reforms of the early 2000s and common man gotten used to petrol and diesel subsidies. Thus the withdrawal of subsidy regime became politically suicidal. The high spending of those years, failure to address structural economic reforms, fiscal mismanagement, coalition politics, pending tax reforms, failure to check inflation add to India's woes today.
Today, the Indian economy is completely out of juice. Here on, 5-6 percent growth may become the new normal, and even that can be sustained only by fast-tracking pending reforms.
