What is the future of the Congress party?

The Indian National Congress is one of the oldest political parties in the world. It has ruled India for most of the post-independence era. The members of the Nehru-Gandhi family have ruled the country for most of this period either directly or indirectly. The Congress party stands in a very difficult situation today. Though the party has gone through turbulent times in the past, the present situation is different and difficult because today it is falling down on its own weight and sheer arrogance. There are many things wrong in the fundamental structure and attitude of the Congress and it is very difficult to fix without making significant changes both in the government and in the party including the state units. Each time the Congress split in the past, good men have deserted the Congress and today the party is left with only sycophants.


After coming to power with a huge mandate in 2009, the arrogant Congress resorted to a number of blunders. First came the corruption scandals. Then the poor handling of the Anna Hazare and the Ramdev movements. It neglected and insulted its allies and started to make unilateral decisions. As a result of this, today, after close to 8 years into power the UPA government is looking fragile with allies looking at their own futures. Today with Mamata's exit from the government, the countdown to the next parliamentary elections has begun.


Next parliamentary elections, 2014 or earlier is going to be very difficult for the Congress. In 2009, the party went to elections having Manmohan at the front after his nuclear deal success. After the last Lok Sabha elections, the political landscape of the country has undergone a huge change. Today, the PM has no credibility left after a series corruption scandals under his watch and his spineless attitude towards implementing long-delayed reforms. Many of its allies are at the peak of their popularity in their states and are vouching for mid-term polls with the dream of reviving the third front. Each time the government gives into one of its ally's demands it leaves the Congress bruised. The exit polls have predicted a gloomy picture for the Congress. Except probably Karnataka, they are not going to make any progress in any of the large states.


In the past everytime the Congress went through a turbulent phase, the Nehru-Gandhi family has stepped into provide leadership and stability. Today the first family is the source of Congress' problems. The biggest problem that is haunting the Congress is the young prince's reluctance to enter active politics. He has revived the youth Congress for close to 8 years now and the result is there for everyone to see. Chances of projecting Rahul as PM candidate in the next elections is close to zero. With no experience and no political achievement to his credit, at 42, he comes across a man who seems to have slipped deep into mid-life crisis. He no longer connects with India's youth. Priyanka, though charismatic, has a huge weakness in the form of Robert Vadra. Once she enters electoral politics, the public scrutiny wont spare her husband. And Sonia cant be expected to lead the party for long since there is a big question mark over her health. She has undergone many health check-ups in the past couple of months and no one knows the exact status of her health.

The Congress, through the years, has successfully destroyed the creative leadership, once evident in the Congress at both the centre and at the state level. The result is, today one cant find leaders of the stature of Advani, Modi, Jaitley, Yashwant Sinha or Jaswant Singh in the Congress. The BJP has powerful regional leaders at the states and charismatic leaders at the centre. This makes it very difficult for the Congress to weave an effective strategy for the next elections. If Modi enters the national arena, and if Rahul is pitted against him, Modi will crush Rahul into insignificance.


It is time for the Congress to dissolve the assembly, sit in the opposition, re-think its strategy, and prepare for the 2019 general elections.