BJP's Southern Disaster

Divided we stand, divided we fall would explain the BJP’s stand in Karnataka perfectly. When BJP formed its first government in South India in 2008, central BJP leaders thought the Karnataka win will help the party make inroads into other southern states. They even thought of showcasing Karnataka as a model state on the lines of Gujarat. Just 4 years into power, state BJP leaders have proved everyone wrong. If the BJP has to save its national image it should expel Yeddyurappa and face the consequences.

Yeddyurappa has been credited with BJP’s step by step electoral success in Karnataka starting in 2004 by most political pundits. But there were more important factors than Yeddyurappa's popularity in Lingayat constituency which actually helped the BJP rise. Ramakrishna Hegde was an extremely popular leader in Northern Karnataka. His passing away in 2004 created a leadership vacuum in the Lingayat-dominated North Karnataka. Since he shared an electoral alliance with the BJP when he died, most of his followers switched sides to the BJP and helped it gain popularity among the Lingayat voters. This was single most important factor in BJP's rise also contributed by the opposition's lethargy.

Ever since Yeddyurappa stormed into power, first as Deputy-CM and later as CM, he generously cultivated and entertained Lingayat swamis. He eventually started projecting himself as the tallest leader of his caste. But his popularity is yet to be tested electorally.

Yeddyurappa has announced his plans to quit the BJP and float his own regional outfit by December. He has been saying that the developments he undertook as CM will play to his advantage. Really? He led one of the most corrupt governments in the history of the state. Some say his greatest achievement is: he made even the RSS top brass in the state aware of their castes. The BJP can be credited with successfully destroying the political culture in the state.

The state assembly elections in 2013 will be followed with great interest. Even though the BJP has played its caste arithmetic correct so far, some of its leaders from prominent castes inspire no confidence among their own castes. Moreover, the BJP is a divided house today and should be more than happy if it can win 60+ seats. The Congress is not in a good shape either. There’s a leadership vacuum very evident in the state Congress which has been in a bad shape since SM Krishna moved to the national stage. Yeddyurappa’s outfit once he floats it and Bellary-Reddy sponsored BSR Congress will have a very limited role to play in the next assembly elections.

Thanks to Yeddyurappa’s bad governance, Kumarswamy and Deve Gowda look like a credible choice for the people of Karnataka today. JD(S) has grown from strength to strength since the last assembly elections. It hopes to increase its seat tally, win 60+ seats and play kingmaker again. It looks like there’s going to be a lot of political turbulence in the days to come. People can forget governance and just sit back & watch the political developments unfurl.