Karnataka ULB polls and the way forward for the state BJP

Urban local body polls are representative of only around 30% of the state's electorate and do not in anyway reveal the trend for the upcoming assembly elections. ULB polls are fought mostly on local factors. But it clearly indicates the presence of an anti-incumbency wave against the ruling BJP government. 

The 5 years of BJP rule in the state has been a tale of extreme cases of nepotism, casteism and corruption. Today, an average BJP karyakarta is not in a position to go out and campaign for their leaders. I have personally spoken to 2 RSS leaders who have decided to stay neutral in the upcoming assembly polls. That said, I must also point out that there is no Congress-wave as such in the state. At best it will be a mixed verdict. But the Congress is clearly in a better position than it was in 2008.

Few BJP supporters have suggested that the party can only prosper if Yeddyurappa is brought back to the party fold. Yeddyurappa has clearly moved on and has made scathing remarks against RSS and the BJP central leadership in the last few months. It will backfire if the party succumbs to Yeddyurappa sympathizers and tries to woo him. One of the party leaders told me that Yeddyurappa's greatest achievement was that he made even the RSS leaders aware of their castes.

BJP clearly hasn't lost everything in the state and might retain its present tally in the parliamentary elections of 2014 if it implements the following measures.

1. Strict action against Yeddyurappa sympathizers within the party even if it means bringing down the government.
2. Give Jagadish Shettar a free hand in the assembly campaign.
3. Anant Kumar and Eshwarappa should not be allowed to make important decisions within the party in the run-up to the assembly elections.
4. Few of the state level RSS leaders who have been making important decisions at the government-level should be kept away.
5. Do not welcome ex-legislators from other parties.
6. Field new faces in the assembly elections and back them fully to build the party from the grassroots.
7. BJP leadership should tender unconditional apology to the people of Karnataka for the misgovernance and charges of corruption.
8. Do not bring in Modi to campaign for the assembly elections because it is clearly a lost cause for the BJP in the state. That might do harm to his national image.
9. Do not resort to extreme caste politics and keep the Hindutva agenda alive. 
10. RSS leadership in the state needs a complete overhaul too.
11. Do not make any covert deals with Reddy brothers.
12. BJP should make an honest attempt to re-build the party from the grassroots, acknowledge the hard work of loyal BJP workers and stay far away from unscrupulous elements.

The above measures will help the party retain quality leadership. It will also enthuse party workers for the 2014 campaign. If the Congress forms the next government in the state it will be clearly ADVANTAGE BJP in 2014 since the anti-incumbency wave would have already set in after one year of governance since the state Congress is a divided house with at least 6 CM aspirants.


'One has to lose many battles to win a war' should be the motto of the state BJP.



Photo Courtesy: The Hindu

Karnataka's Political Mess

Just 4 years back when the BJP formed it's first government in South India, BJP central leaders had plans of projecting the state on the lines of Gujarat. But what the state has seen since then is history- extreme cases of nepotism, casteism and corruption. None of the 3 CMs the state has seen since the BJP came to power delivered on their promises. The BJP government became a talking-point of corruption and a flag-bearer of misgovernance. The people of the state had to bend their heads in shame in front of the nation's eyes.

The BJP which never tasted success in South India grew from strength-to-strength in Karnataka for the following 4 reasons.
1. Death of Ramakrishna Hegde- Ramakrishna Hegde had an alliance with the BJP at the national level when he passed away. He was very popular especially among the Lingayats. The BJP filled the leadership vacuum after his passing away by taking in most of his supporters and built the party organisation very well using RSS' organisational capabilities. The popularity of Vajpayee led NDA also helped the party's standing in the state.
2. Kumarswamy's failure to transfer power to BSY- This was seen by many especially by the Lingayats as a plot against them and they sided with the BJP as the state hadn't seen a Lingayat CM since JH Patel.
3. Bellary brothers- The Reddy brothers invested heavily in the 2008 elections and helped form the BJP government to protect their business interests.
4. Good strategy- Arun Jaitley did a fantastic job by coupling RSS' organisational capabilities, sympathy factor, caste equations and Bellary mining money.
The combination of all the above factors delivered a victory for the BJP.

The BJP is solely responsible for the mess the state is currently in. The BJP has to do a face-saving act by immediately dissolving the assembly and seek early elections. It cannot even dream of coming to power on it's own in the next 5 years in the state. The central leadership should instead ask the state leadership to sit in the opposition and work over-time for the 2014 parliamentary elections to contribute maximum number of MPs to make Narendra Modi the PM.

Personally, I am a huge fan of RSS, Narendra Modi and Advani but I'm disgusted at the state of affairs in the Karnataka BJP which is full of mediocrity. Congress in the state suffers from the same problem since it's central leadership does not encourage strong leaders at the state level. The only choice for the people now is HD Kumarswamy. Once led by mighty politicians such as S Nijalingappa, Devraj Urs, Ramakrishna Hegde who had earned a name for themselves even outside the state, we're now reduced to choosing the best among the worst. Please cast your vote consciously in the next assembly elections in the state and let us collectively push mediocrity out of Karnataka's political system.

Photo Courtesy: The Hindu, Outlook India

BJP's Southern Disaster

Divided we stand, divided we fall would explain the BJP’s stand in Karnataka perfectly. When BJP formed its first government in South India in 2008, central BJP leaders thought the Karnataka win will help the party make inroads into other southern states. They even thought of showcasing Karnataka as a model state on the lines of Gujarat. Just 4 years into power, state BJP leaders have proved everyone wrong. If the BJP has to save its national image it should expel Yeddyurappa and face the consequences.

Yeddyurappa has been credited with BJP’s step by step electoral success in Karnataka starting in 2004 by most political pundits. But there were more important factors than Yeddyurappa's popularity in Lingayat constituency which actually helped the BJP rise. Ramakrishna Hegde was an extremely popular leader in Northern Karnataka. His passing away in 2004 created a leadership vacuum in the Lingayat-dominated North Karnataka. Since he shared an electoral alliance with the BJP when he died, most of his followers switched sides to the BJP and helped it gain popularity among the Lingayat voters. This was single most important factor in BJP's rise also contributed by the opposition's lethargy.

Ever since Yeddyurappa stormed into power, first as Deputy-CM and later as CM, he generously cultivated and entertained Lingayat swamis. He eventually started projecting himself as the tallest leader of his caste. But his popularity is yet to be tested electorally.

Yeddyurappa has announced his plans to quit the BJP and float his own regional outfit by December. He has been saying that the developments he undertook as CM will play to his advantage. Really? He led one of the most corrupt governments in the history of the state. Some say his greatest achievement is: he made even the RSS top brass in the state aware of their castes. The BJP can be credited with successfully destroying the political culture in the state.

The state assembly elections in 2013 will be followed with great interest. Even though the BJP has played its caste arithmetic correct so far, some of its leaders from prominent castes inspire no confidence among their own castes. Moreover, the BJP is a divided house today and should be more than happy if it can win 60+ seats. The Congress is not in a good shape either. There’s a leadership vacuum very evident in the state Congress which has been in a bad shape since SM Krishna moved to the national stage. Yeddyurappa’s outfit once he floats it and Bellary-Reddy sponsored BSR Congress will have a very limited role to play in the next assembly elections.

Thanks to Yeddyurappa’s bad governance, Kumarswamy and Deve Gowda look like a credible choice for the people of Karnataka today. JD(S) has grown from strength to strength since the last assembly elections. It hopes to increase its seat tally, win 60+ seats and play kingmaker again. It looks like there’s going to be a lot of political turbulence in the days to come. People can forget governance and just sit back & watch the political developments unfurl.