Wednesday, 19 September 2012

What is the future of the Congress party?

The Indian National Congress is one of the oldest political parties in the world. It has ruled India for most of the post-independence era. The members of the Nehru-Gandhi family have ruled the country for most of this period either directly or indirectly. The Congress party stands in a very difficult situation today. Though the party has gone through turbulent times in the past, the present situation is different and difficult because today it is falling down on its own weight and sheer arrogance. There are many things wrong in the fundamental structure and attitude of the Congress and it is very difficult to fix without making significant changes both in the government and in the party including the state units. Each time the Congress split in the past, good men have deserted the Congress and today the party is left with only sycophants.


After coming to power with a huge mandate in 2009, the arrogant Congress resorted to a number of blunders. First came the corruption scandals. Then the poor handling of the Anna Hazare and the Ramdev movements. It neglected and insulted its allies and started to make unilateral decisions. As a result of this, today, after close to 8 years into power the UPA government is looking fragile with allies looking at their own futures. Today with Mamata's exit from the government, the countdown to the next parliamentary elections has begun.


Next parliamentary elections, 2014 or earlier is going to be very difficult for the Congress. In 2009, the party went to elections having Manmohan at the front after his nuclear deal success. After the last Lok Sabha elections, the political landscape of the country has undergone a huge change. Today, the PM has no credibility left after a series corruption scandals under his watch and his spineless attitude towards implementing long-delayed reforms. Many of its allies are at the peak of their popularity in their states and are vouching for mid-term polls with the dream of reviving the third front. Each time the government gives into one of its ally's demands it leaves the Congress bruised. The exit polls have predicted a gloomy picture for the Congress. Except probably Karnataka, they are not going to make any progress in any of the large states.


In the past everytime the Congress went through a turbulent phase, the Nehru-Gandhi family has stepped into provide leadership and stability. Today the first family is the source of Congress' problems. The biggest problem that is haunting the Congress is the young prince's reluctance to enter active politics. He has revived the youth Congress for close to 8 years now and the result is there for everyone to see. Chances of projecting Rahul as PM candidate in the next elections is close to zero. With no experience and no political achievement to his credit, at 42, he comes across a man who seems to have slipped deep into mid-life crisis. He no longer connects with India's youth. Priyanka, though charismatic, has a huge weakness in the form of Robert Vadra. Once she enters electoral politics, the public scrutiny wont spare her husband. And Sonia cant be expected to lead the party for long since there is a big question mark over her health. She has undergone many health check-ups in the past couple of months and no one knows the exact status of her health.


The Congress, through the years, has successfully destroyed the creative leadership, once evident in the Congress at both the centre and at the state level. The result is, today one cant find leaders of the stature of Advani, Modi, Jaitley, Yashwant Sinha or Jaswant Singh in the Congress. The BJP has powerful regional leaders at the states and charismatic leaders at the centre. This makes it very difficult for the Congress to weave an effective strategy for the next elections. If Modi enters the national arena, and if Rahul is pitted against him, Modi will crush Rahul into insignificance.


It is time for the Congress to dissolve the assembly, sit in the opposition, re-think its strategy, and prepare for the 2019 general elections.


Saturday, 15 September 2012

The Politics of Economic Reforms

On Friday, the Government headed by Manmohan Singh suddenly announced big-ticket economic reforms including allowing FDI in multi brand retail and aviation and a few other sectors and a 15000 crore divestment target. On Thursday came a decision to hike diesel prices and capping subsidies on LPG. It seems like the Government has gone all-in to make up for years of inactivity and policy paralysis.


Now, the timing of all these big announcements is very important. The international media from 'The Economist' to the 'Time magazine' had criticised the PM for all the inaction and failure to implement reforms. The international investing community and the Corporate India had been very vocal against the Singh led Government. More than anything, these big announcements help improve the short term market sentiments. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who was called an 'Underachiever' by the Time magazine suddenly looks like a hero. The TV channels who had slowly started to distance themselves from the Congress after a series of corruption scandals under his watch are back again praising the Government's enthusiasm in implementing long-delayed reforms. Is this PM Singh's N-Deal moment?



There may be many reasons both political and corporate lobby behind Singh's new-found enthusiasm and guts. But whatever the reasons are, these reforms were very much necessary for the nation at the moment. Any big economic reform has side effects but in the long run it helps to bring in efficiency and prosperity to the country's citizens both urban and rural.


The developments in the last two days on the economic reform front clearly shows the efficiency of the well oiled crisis management system of the Congress party. It has successfully shifted the national debate from the 'Coalgate' to the reforms. The BJP appears to be the biggest loser from this swift political move by the Congress because FDI in multi-brand retail was Jaswant Singh's 'baby'. The BJP has positioned itself on the wrong side of its urban consumer vote-bank by opposing FDI. Even though the SP and the TMC have opposed FDI in retail their support base mainly consists of rural voters, but the urban voters have traditionally been with the BJP. The Congress has once again exposed BJP's failure in formulating clear economic and media strategy. The BJP should have welcomed the Government's announcements and should have convinced people that the UPA-2 is just implementing the policies that were actually born during the NDA regime.


Overnight the BJP finds itself aligned on the side of backward-looking Left parties. The BJP should learn from the policies of the right wing parties across the globe. It should shed its anti-development image and hug free-market capitalism. Only the free markets can bring in prosperity in its true sense. A Government cannot shield its people forever from the adverse effects of the global economy. And farmers & traders have to get out there compete with the world's best and in turn make the entire system efficient.


At the end all this means the Prime Minister has just survived to fight another day.





Thursday, 13 September 2012

The anti-Indira Movement of the 70s

CNN-IBN's recent show 'The Greatest Indian after Gandhi' shed some light on the forgotten heroes of this country. While watching the show, I was discussing the anti-emergency politics with a friend. I was shocked that she was completely unaware of the heroes of the emergency era politics.

After the Bangladesh triumph in 1971, Indira Gandhi hailed as 'Goddess Durga', storms into power with a massive mandate. After this huge victory, she becomes increasingly autocratic, dismantling the old Nehruvian Congress party structure and filling the party at all levels and ministries with sycophants who are personally loyal to her. The Congress party to this day is struggling to come out of this problem. Ironically, her very landslide victory in 1972 sets the clock ticking for her downfall and the rise of the Janata movement.

Raj Narain, who had been defeated by Indira in the parliamentary elections, lodged cases of election fraud against Gandhi in the Allahabad High Court. On 12 June 1975, the High Court found the PM Indira guilty of misuse of the government machinery for electoral purposes, declared her election null and also banned her from contesting any election for 6 years.

Midnight of July 25-26, 1975, the then President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, a 'rubber-stamp' appointee signed a proclamation of internal emergency merely based on a letter from his boss PM Indira in which she says there is an imminent danger to India's security by inernal factors. What followed were 21 months of the darkest period in independent India. With fundamental rights suspended, press censorship imposed, and opposition leaders in jail, Indira ruled the country like a dictator.

Jayaprakash Narayan emerges out of retirement as the staunch critic of autocracy and with the slogan 'Dilli ki rani dekho janta kiske saath hai' calls for 'Total Revolution'. George Fernandes leads a national railway strike which the government crushes through 20000 arrests. The government issues order to arrest the opposition leaders all over the country.

In 1977, four main opposition parties and numerous other cultural and political organisations come together to form the 'Janata Party' under the over reaching appeal of the anti-emergency crusader Loknayak Jayaprakash Narayan. Morarji Desai becomes the first party president, Ramakrishna Hegde the party general secretary and LK Advani the party spokesperson. Even though Indira travelled the length and breadth of the nation, the newly formed Janata Party won a sweeping victory and was able to form the first non-Congress government at the centre.

Janata Party and its allies had swept North India, almost 330 seats out of 542. Indira and her son Sanjay both suffered humiliating defeats in their constituencies. One could finally travel from Calcutta to Amritsar without traversing an inch of Congress-ruled territory.

India and the world had welcomed the outcome of the 1977 election as a "revolution by the ballot-box". Within 34 months of it coming to power, the Janata government fell under its own weight due to the clashing ambitions of its leaders mainly Morarji Desai, Jagjivan Ram and Charan Singh. Though Janata Party was in power for just 2 and odd years, it had far-reaching consequences. It uprooted the Congress' supremacy in several states and forever diminishing the hold of Congress party over the Indian polity. The Janata movement also brought thousands of young men and women into politics and many of whom go on to become PMs, CMs and regional satraps changing the Indian political landscape forever further democraticising India. But it is an irony and also shocking that many of them who were trained in JP's stables and those who climbed the political ladder through the Janata movement are now either Congress' direct allies or externally supporting the utterly corrupt and incompetent Congress led UPA-2. These leaders by their actions actually despise the very ideas JP once stood for. I only wish these leaders stand together again and call for a second 'Total Revolution' in 2014.